Demonstration environment — all carriers, scores, and figures are fictional and illustrative. Licensed-source values (RapidRatings, CreditRiskMonitor) depict a planned integration, not vendor output.

COMPASS
Portfolio

Harrowgate Air CargoHGC

Air carrierPrivately heldLouisville, KYElevatedInferredConfidence C

Open findings (1)

Modeled score stable while operational ground truth collapses

Cross-source conflictRaised 2026-07-02

FRISK reads 7/10 (stable), but Form 41 load factor has fallen 17 points over seven quarters, block hours are down 34% year over year, and a third of the fleet is parked. COMPASS surfaces the disagreement as the finding instead of averaging the signals into a composite.

Modeled signal says

  • FRISK 7/10 — stableCreditRiskMonitor FRISK

Ground truth says

  • Load factor 78% → 61%DOT-BTS Form 41 Schedule T-100
  • Block hours −34% YoYDOT-BTS Form 41 Schedule P-5.2
  • 7 of 21 aircraft parked > 60 daysRegistry / utilization records

Two-track assessment

Track 1

Statement-derived financial health

Confidential statement exchange (RapidRatings FHR) — audited statements, never made public

Not participating in the confidential statement exchange. No audited financials available; assessment relies on Track 2 inference and is graded accordingly.

No audited data

Track 2

Inferred financial risk

No carrier cooperation required (CreditRiskMonitor FRISK/PAYCE)

7/10 FRISK
PAYCE payment behavior
6/10
12-month distress probability
1.1%
As of
2026-06
Inferred

Operational ground truth

Government and public feeds USTRANSCOM already trusts.

Load factor % — trailing 8 quarters

61%
2024-Q22026-Q1
Active fleet14 of 21 aircraft
On-time performance81%
Block hours, trailing 12 monthsDown 34% year over year
Aircraft parked > 60 days7 of 21 (33% of fleet idle)

Fuel exposure

Exposed to fuel-price shocks

Forward fuel hedged (next 12 months)

12%

Fuel share of operating cost

34%

Only 12% of forward fuel is hedged against a 34% fuel share of operating cost — a fuel-price shock would flow through largely unhedged.

AI executive snapshot

Generated 2026-07-06 06:40 UTC — every sentence resolves to a named source.

Harrowgate Air Cargo is flagged ELEVATED on cross-source disagreement, not on any single score.

The modeled credit signal reads stable: FRISK 7/10 with a 12-month distress probability of 1.1%.

Operational ground truth disagrees: Form 41 load factor has fallen from 78% to 61% over seven quarters, block hours are down 34% year over year, and a third of the fleet has been parked for more than 60 days.

Because Harrowgate does not participate in the confidential statement exchange, no audited financials are available; every financial metric on this page is inferred and graded accordingly (confidence C).

With only 12% of forward fuel hedged against 34% fuel share of operating cost, a fuel-price shock would compound the utilization decline.

COMPASS surfaces this disagreement as the finding rather than averaging the signals into a composite; recommend requesting statement participation or increased monitoring cadence before the next award cycle.

Sources cited

  1. 1.CreditRiskMonitor FRISK — FRISK score (10 = lowest risk): 7 / 10 (as of 2026-06)
  2. 2.DOT-BTS Form 41 Schedule T-100 — System load factor: 61% (down from 78% over 7 quarters) (as of 2026-Q1 filing)
  3. 3.CreditRiskMonitor FRISK — 12-month probability of financial distress: 1.1% (as of 2026-06)
  4. 4.DOT-BTS Form 41 Schedule P-5.2 — Block hours, trailing 12 months: Down 34% year over year (as of 2026-Q1 filing)
  5. 5.Registry / utilization records — Aircraft parked > 60 days: 7 of 21 (33% of fleet idle) (as of 2026-06)
  6. 6.EIA fuel-market series vs. disclosed hedge posture — Forward fuel hedged (next 12 months): 12% (as of 2026-06)