Open findings
When sources disagree, COMPASS surfaces the disagreement as the finding — with each signal cited — instead of averaging it into a composite score.
Modeled score stable while operational ground truth collapses
FRISK reads 7/10 (stable), but Form 41 load factor has fallen 17 points over seven quarters, block hours are down 34% year over year, and a third of the fleet is parked. COMPASS surfaces the disagreement as the finding instead of averaging the signals into a composite.
FRISK 7/10 — stable
Load factor 78% → 61%
Block hours −34% YoY
7 of 21 aircraft parked > 60 days
All sources agree: sustained financial and operational decline
Audited FHR 31/100 (deteriorating), FRISK 2/10, 12-month distress probability 9.6%, load factor at 47% after seven consecutive declines. Grade-A confidence — every track corroborates. Contingency routing recommended.
FHR 31/100, deteriorating
12-month distress probability 9.6%
Load factor 47%, 7 quarters of decline
Audited statements three quarters old; live AIS contradicts them
Statement-derived FHR (71/100) rests on 2025-Q3 financials. AIS shows 5 of 14 vessels idle beyond 30 days — activity inconsistent with those statements. Assessment downgraded to confidence B and statement refresh requested.
FHR 71/100 as of 2025-Q3
5 of 14 vessels idle > 30 days
Largest unhedged fuel exposure in the portfolio
Only 8% of forward fuel hedged against a 36% fuel share of operating cost. A sustained 20% jet-fuel price increase would compress margin an estimated 5–6 points. Financials otherwise stable.
8% hedged / 36% fuel share of opex
FRISK 6/10 — stable
Inferred distress corroborated by declining fleet activity
No audited statements available, but FRISK (3/10), PAYCE payment slowdown, and AIS fleet activity (90% → 73%) decline together — independent sources agreeing raises confidence in the inferred signal.
FRISK 3/10
PAYCE 4/10, slowing payments
Fleet active 90% → 73%
Labor agreement expires 2026-09-30 with negotiations open
Both financial tracks are sound and current, but a work stoppage would idle Gulf Coast capacity during the fall surge window. Monitoring cadence increased through contract resolution.
Primary labor agreement expires 2026-09-30
FHR 68/100 — current and stable