Demonstration environment — all carriers, scores, and figures are fictional and illustrative. Licensed-source values (RapidRatings, CreditRiskMonitor) depict a planned integration, not vendor output.

COMPASS
Portfolio

Northgale AviationNGA

Air carrierPublicly tradedMinneapolis, MNModerateStatement-derivedConfidence B

Open findings (1)

Largest unhedged fuel exposure in the portfolio

ExposureRaised 2026-07-01

Only 8% of forward fuel hedged against a 36% fuel share of operating cost. A sustained 20% jet-fuel price increase would compress margin an estimated 5–6 points. Financials otherwise stable.

  • 8% hedged / 36% fuel share of opexEIA fuel-market series vs. disclosed hedge posture
  • FRISK 6/10 — stableCreditRiskMonitor FRISK

Two-track assessment

Track 1

Statement-derived financial health

Confidential statement exchange (RapidRatings FHR) — audited statements, never made public

Not participating in the confidential statement exchange. No audited financials available; assessment relies on Track 2 inference and is graded accordingly.

No audited data

Track 2

Inferred financial risk

No carrier cooperation required (CreditRiskMonitor FRISK/PAYCE)

6/10 FRISK
12-month distress probability
1.6%
As of
2026-06
Inferred

Operational ground truth

Government and public feeds USTRANSCOM already trusts.

Load factor % — trailing 8 quarters

79%
2024-Q22026-Q1
Active fleet39 of 41 aircraft
On-time performance88%

Fuel exposure

Exposed to fuel-price shocks

Forward fuel hedged (next 12 months)

8%

Fuel share of operating cost

36%

Only 8% of forward fuel is hedged against a 36% fuel share of operating cost — a fuel-price shock would flow through largely unhedged.

AI executive snapshot

Generated 2026-07-06 06:40 UTC — every sentence resolves to a named source.

Northgale Aviation is financially stable but carries the portfolio’s largest unhedged fuel exposure: 8% hedged against a 36% fuel share of operating cost.

A sustained 20% jet-fuel price increase would compress operating margin by an estimated 5–6 points before any pass-through.

Financial and operational signals otherwise agree; risk tier MODERATE on exposure alone.

Sources cited

  1. 1.EIA fuel-market series vs. disclosed hedge posture — Forward fuel hedged (next 12 months): 8% (as of 2026-06)
  2. 2.SEC EDGAR (10-Q) — Public filings: Current — no going-concern language (as of 2026-Q1)
  3. 3.CreditRiskMonitor FRISK — FRISK score (10 = lowest risk): 6 / 10 (as of 2026-06)
  4. 4.DOT-BTS Form 41 Schedule T-100 — System load factor: 79%, stable (as of 2026-Q1 filing)